Last week the tiffinwala, - the fabled buys with 6 sigma accuracy, the guys who got a whole lot of media coverage, who got visited by Prince Charles, the guys who were invited for his second wedding, the guys whom Harvard business school students studied etc etc… yes those very same guys, famous around the world for their accuracy, the guys who tirelessly collect your food from home and bring it to your office everyday in a tiffin with unequalled accuracy using a method of codes on the tiffin, those very same famous tifffin walas also called the dabbawala of Mumbai, those guys last week ….. misplaced by dabba (tiffin). They put it somewhere else. They managed to trace it back and then they handed it over to us the next day. A ha. Six sigma accuracy is only 99.99966% accurate. I understand, but interestingly this has happened to me the second time in the last two months. Hah!
I guess the 0.00044% hit me twice in a row. How bad is that? Was I at my unluckiest best, or should I day unluckiest worst!? Now there are two ways to look at it. I might have been the unluckiest person to get it twice but I might be very lucky that all my bad luck got exhausted on the humble tiffin. Imagine being hit by that kind of bad luck on the road.
Like I always say when we are doing events or even while doing routine work. Never keep your eye off the ball. A 1% probability does not mean that you won’t be hit 99 times. You could get at the first instance. And after getting hit it does not mean that you cat get hit for another 99 instances. You could just as well be hit again, and again and again. Probability does mean for shit. You always have to keep your eye on the ball and be prepared.
So what’s the bigger problem? Those with a higher probability of occurrence or those with a lower probability of occurrence? That’s an eternal question. The Higher ones are easier to deal with. Since they have higher probabilities, they tend to be managed and you can be prepared for them. The lower ones are the ones that will catch you unprepared. If you think enough, the higher probabilities can be sufficiently thwarted, like building a roof over a reception area in the monsoon. But you would typically not plan for one during winter in Mumbai. You only need to plan well enough and quip yourself with adequate knowledge of all around you.
Over a period of time you negate the higher ones and keep your eyes out for the lower ones. You keep thinking, anticipating and looking for ways in which things can go wrong. You buy insurance against some stuff, you equip yourself for some and for some you merely think through. The last ones left are the unforeseen ones. If you are aware enough and you have had enough exposure, you should be pretty cool. Akin to the simple process of remembering where the exit or reading through the escape plan that’s at the back of hotel doors.
Shit always happens. It will come at you and you can’t really anticipate it but, if you keep your eyes and ears open and keep your observations sharp, you should be ok most of the time. I assume at least 99.99966% of the time.
So that day I had to eat outside. My friend took me to this really cheap place where I had this amazing meal. It was really cheap and the meal was very filling. It was a limited thali, only a limited amount of food is served. The price? 25 rupees. About half a dollar. It included… here.. have a look at it. The bowl of rice follows later.
My wife remarked that at 25 bucks a day and 5 days a week, it’s cheaper for me to eat outside than to have the dabbawala who charges 550 bucks for the delivery alone.
I guess the 0.00044% hit me twice in a row. How bad is that? Was I at my unluckiest best, or should I day unluckiest worst!? Now there are two ways to look at it. I might have been the unluckiest person to get it twice but I might be very lucky that all my bad luck got exhausted on the humble tiffin. Imagine being hit by that kind of bad luck on the road.
Like I always say when we are doing events or even while doing routine work. Never keep your eye off the ball. A 1% probability does not mean that you won’t be hit 99 times. You could get at the first instance. And after getting hit it does not mean that you cat get hit for another 99 instances. You could just as well be hit again, and again and again. Probability does mean for shit. You always have to keep your eye on the ball and be prepared.
So what’s the bigger problem? Those with a higher probability of occurrence or those with a lower probability of occurrence? That’s an eternal question. The Higher ones are easier to deal with. Since they have higher probabilities, they tend to be managed and you can be prepared for them. The lower ones are the ones that will catch you unprepared. If you think enough, the higher probabilities can be sufficiently thwarted, like building a roof over a reception area in the monsoon. But you would typically not plan for one during winter in Mumbai. You only need to plan well enough and quip yourself with adequate knowledge of all around you.
Over a period of time you negate the higher ones and keep your eyes out for the lower ones. You keep thinking, anticipating and looking for ways in which things can go wrong. You buy insurance against some stuff, you equip yourself for some and for some you merely think through. The last ones left are the unforeseen ones. If you are aware enough and you have had enough exposure, you should be pretty cool. Akin to the simple process of remembering where the exit or reading through the escape plan that’s at the back of hotel doors.
Shit always happens. It will come at you and you can’t really anticipate it but, if you keep your eyes and ears open and keep your observations sharp, you should be ok most of the time. I assume at least 99.99966% of the time.
So that day I had to eat outside. My friend took me to this really cheap place where I had this amazing meal. It was really cheap and the meal was very filling. It was a limited thali, only a limited amount of food is served. The price? 25 rupees. About half a dollar. It included… here.. have a look at it. The bowl of rice follows later.
My wife remarked that at 25 bucks a day and 5 days a week, it’s cheaper for me to eat outside than to have the dabbawala who charges 550 bucks for the delivery alone.
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