You never know which lesson will come handy.

“May you live in interesting times”. Said to be (probably apocryphal) a Chinese curse. Times of peace and tranquility and boredom are possibly best for quality of life. Life without issues, innovation, pressure is a boring lovely simple life. Hah! That is a 41 year old talking. The same thing as a 14 year old would be a life with nothing new to look forward to. How is a life, sans pressure and change worth living is it? Wouldn’t we all want to live in interesting times. Where productivity is constantly increasing and change is helping us lead more meaningful and sweetly ripe lives. Ya, I for now like to live in interesting times as things change around me, as I understand this change and get a ring side view of the changes and their impact on people and interplay of the characters. I was lucky to have been born in 1975. Which meant I was the one who entered college when liberalization started and exited when its impact was in full flow. Today I am seeing the impact of internet and mobile penetration in the country and how its changing the landscape. It an era that looks like massive change is coming and it’s going to sweep everyone off.

Many years ago, I read a book by John Nasbitt called Mindset. It was quite an interesting book and it talks about predicting the future from current news, science and trends. I don’t remember most of the book (like always) but one lesson stuck tight in the head. Most of the trends that really matter to us over the long term are hidden in the inside pages of a newspaper and never on the front page. Yes, I agree. Change happens in small increments and over a long period of time. Suddenly the tipping point comes in and it looks like a rapid sudden change. The internet first wave came in the year 2000 and I rode that wave for some time and worked in a few start-ups. I saw that internet was changing the world and that crazy things would happen, but the advent of the mobile internet and apps put the dam thing on steroids. The most interesting disruption that affected a lot of our lives was the advent of App based taxi servces, especially Uber.

Every commuter, including me hailed Uber as the solution to all issues. This was the best thing ever. In Mumbai we were victims of the taxi mafia, that had a few things to do with regulation and a few thanks to lack of competition (of course both are interconnected). You wouldn’t be able to get a taxi when you wanted and whenever you got one, he would first ask where you wanted to go and then refuse to go in that direction. The cars were in horrible condition, the government refused to allow AC to be run in the taxis. For AC taxis they gave out separate permits. These were called cool cabs. These were the ultimate jokes. These taxis only plied from the airport and were stationed near the five star hotels. They also invariably refused small fares and were typically employed by either shopping seduced NRIS or foreign nationals. The meters of these were completely rigged and would show some random price, which was up to 3 x of the real rate. The humble black and yellow taxis also tended to have rigged meters and whenever I used to take one from the airport, I would get an inflated price after which I would fight and pay only the normal fare and walk away. Taxis were so broken down that they could be considered dilapidated. You could see the road down from a few holes in the floor of the cabs. Serious. They were that bad.

On the side lines, the government had given permission to launch AC call cab services. Here you could call and book your cab in advance. These cars were decent looking and maintained and theoretically they could be flagged down anywhere on the roads. Slowly these too gravitated towards airport pickups and drops and five star hotels. You could call for a cab and book in advance only to be told later that there was no cab to be found at your appointed hour. Even at the airport one had to wait in a line before one could book the cab. It was a great step forward but it still wasn’t enough.

So, when Uber launched in Mumbai, it was a crazy dream for the commuters. Good, new cars were on the road. You could load the wallet with money and then order a car from app. You could see that the pricing was competitive and that you could get the taxi confirmed without telling him in advance where you wanted to go. You simply booked and sat. The app became so good, that you could book your car on the phone and reach your destination without ever speaking to the driver. The location was prefixed and the wallet was loaded. No need to speak to anyone. You could see your taxi in real time and it was supposedly the safe and best way to ride.

It broke the back of the normal black and yellow cabs. Being subsidized (read predatory pricing), the rates were awesome and people rushed to download the app. Usage went through the roof. Airport pick up and drop was a breeze. People were happy and could show the middle finger to all normal taxis. I remember going to Hyderabad a year and a half ago and being completely independent of the completely fraudulent rickshaw drivers. I roamed around in Hyderabad in a taxi at the same cost of a metered rickshaw. Of course no rickshaw would go on meter and invariably you have to haggle your way everywhere. The world had just become a little smaller.

The promise of unbridled capitalism had benefited the common man. But like all unbridled capitalism, there were consequences to be had. The party on free flow of funds had to stop sometime. The crazy demand had created crazy supply. Uber and their Indian rival Ola, went all out to woo the Indian drivers. They wanted more and more taxis on the road. Drivers at the start were making unheard figures of 90 thousand or so a month. More and more drivers came in form villages and started driving their cabs. Some smart ones, expanded their fleet. On the back of robust income streams these drivers started having robust credit scores and the credit poured in. Fueled by a small upfront investment and a seemingly unending source of business cash flow, you could become a driver owner at worst or a fleet owner at best. Adam Smith’s invisible hand started to play havoc. The demand for drivers meant that driver salaries went up. In the last two year’s I would reckon that the salary went up by 1.5X at the minimum. Slowly more and more cabs started coming on the streets. To ensure enough cars everywhere, Uber had a surge pricing system where if there was demand and not enough supply, they would increase the pricing (surge pricing) to tempt more cars to reach the areas that are underserviced. The consumers had a chance to book or wait till more cabs hit and reduce the surge in the area. This caused dissonance with the users who thought that it was unfair.

Taxis also were being pressed into service which were actually tourist taxis and were on the fine line of the law, if they could be considered as everyday call taxis.

Of course a lot of good things happened, economy wise. First of all, a large part of the business became legit. Taxi drivers were till now an all cash business. They would earn all their income in cash and possibly never ever filed a tax return. Being outside of the system, they would be ineligible for credit and therefore were forced to be on the fringes of society. Uber allowed them the opportunity to legalise their entire business model and therefore access finance and grow.

With more and more taxis hitting the street, different sets of issues started cropping up. These guys were so many in number that civic planning became chaotic. With access to cheap cabs more people started to use it to commute to work. Traffic was full of Uber cars choking the road. While the consumers demanded it, at a fundamental level, the playing field was lopsided in favour of the app cabs. They could charge free fares which the black and yellow taxis couldn’t. So, they could benefit from surge. Second - parking spots for black and yellows were designated. That’s where they could park and wait for customers. These Uber taxis could wait anywhere, and they did. They would invariably wait around the roads causing jams. An Uber waiting or wanting to search for a customer would keep moving slowly till he found his customer, fundamentally slowly down the traffic for the rest on the road.

In the middle, an Uber driver raped a girl in Delhi and the world realized that these drivers need proper verification as the alleged rapist was a known criminal on the loose. Just because you can track someone doesn’t mean you can’t be harmed from them.

The point of all this history isn’t to document this but to learn interesting lessons from this. When regulations happen they invariably choke the system and give consumers a shitty service, but when capitalism is left unchecked, equally great ills can be unleashed in the form of unintended consequences. False predatory pricing brought a lot of credit fuels cars on the road, but when the pricing stops as it nears it real value, these drivers will be held to a lower income stream and a mountain of debt. Its already started happening. Now an Uber driver will tell you that today he receives only 4 to 5 trips a day compared to the 10, 11 earlier. He hardly got any surge pricing benefits now days as you see Uber cars everywhere. Debt servicing is going to be an issue.

The government has woken up to this service and is now trying to regulate it. It is trying to put in pricing curbs and some other rules like regulating car color.

This is interesting. The swings are happening real time. The consequences of market forces coming together and partying are causing hangovers. Suddenly, you will have lesser cars in response to lesser demand thanks to increase in price. What will happen to the drivers? What will happen to these excess cars? What will happen to roads, parking and commute?

Fun things I assume. In many countries, private drivers can work their cars as Uber cars during their spare time. That is another level of complication being built into the economics of car ownership and commute.

The point here is simple. There are two sides of the coin. If the government interferes then it’s an issue; if it lets the private enterprise go unchecked, the issues are of another scale. This is not simply a government versus non-government issue. It is an issue of intervention. Any intervention, big or small has consequences, intended or unintended. Things move crazy after a small change in initial condition. I think it’s called the chaos theory. Here large changes in final outcome can be attributed to small changes in initial conditions. We argue and argue on so many small and big issues. We seem to understand all the issues and then we give our opinions on it. Life has taught me that issues are not straightforward. They have choices and choices and thenthe decision tree rapidly multiplies and assumptions start taking over. SO much so that after a point guessing is worse than tossing a coin.

All of what is happening at Uber is simple and possibly one could have explained it, with the benefit of hindsight. But it’s almost impossible to figure it as foresight. We get lost in the waves of optimism around us. All will be well. We argue (me included) that private enterprise is good and must be free. Sure – it must be free’er’ than where it is today but it cannot simply be unchecked. Then the problem is who is to check it? The authority in any case doesn’t understand it. None of us – including the authority or the entrepreneur knows the game more than two steps ahead. In such a scenario, how can you plan so far in advance. And when you do plan in advance, you will invariably start glossing over small details that will make significant impacts over a period of time.

When the Uber frenzy was happening and drivers were earning 90k a month and above, I too felt like getting into the bandwagon. Whats wrong with this? One car costs around six hundred thousand. That’s at best 8 months for profit to keep rolling in. And people like me have good credit history and with a good balance sheet, I can leverage and expand like crazy. It’s a story that too good to be true. I knew one thing – if anything is true good to be true – it isn’t.  there is always something up. If there is free money then there will be a flock of vultures making a cacophony attracting other vultures. Soon enough there won’t be any meat left for any of the vultures. There can’t be free money for long. Especially if it is capitalist money. Government money can be free for much longer. Corruption, lethargy and smoke can ensure you have a sweet spot for a longtime to come. But definitely not open market money. It comes with risk. For me the biggest risk was simple – government. Here I knew that the government would get involved and at worst – ban it all and at best – regulate it to a jam. It cannot grow thus for long. I never reached the free money fallacy on this deal in advance. I never got there. I think I too was swayed by it all.

This is the fun bit when you live in interesting times. You see economics 1.0 being played out over your life. It is the greatest lesson that you can learn. Free! You just have to look around and make mental models of what’s happening.  Life has enough to teach you. That’s why it’s amazing to have a conversation with an older experienced person who is able to retain his /her memory and give you the benefit of their life. Simple stories make a huge learning experience. My favorite one is how one friend running a premium saree shop explained that the Ahmedabad airport opening up reduced his sales in Mumbai as the gujju NRI’s simply took the direct flight there and skipped Mumbai altogether.

Parenting is also complex. Here only time will tell how much of a effect does chaos theory have on the child. Small decisions like schooling, neighborhood, choice of sport, movies etc have an impact on the child as it grows into an adult. Who knows what the consequences are. That’s why parents who like to have a greater control over their child’s future will sweat hard over agonizingly simple decisions. Long term decisions with limited data. A simple act of choosing our child’s play dates can have different consequences than what we can imagine. Yet we have no choice but to choose.

It’s the classical Keynesian versus Hayekian model for economics. Should I or the government interfere or should it be free to grow. Left free, over a period of time, the people find amazing things to do and innovate. But in the long run, we are all dead. And the actions affect us or the people we love. Can we but not interfere and try and guide it to the place we want it to sit. Can we simply just sit back and say – lets see where it goes. If it gets too ugly, I can always get in. It’s not so simple. Like in the Uber case – you don’t know how ugly is ugly. Suppose Uber folds shop world over, my assumption is that an app based taxi concept will remain. Someone else will come in but the demand may not be that much. What happens to all the taxis drivers. All the credit guys who put in the money. How do they make good? It takes a few taxi drivers to commit harakiri – a strike (which we have seen), violent protests, immolation and suicide. What gives then? Who is to answer. The commuter enjoyed his ride in an AC cab for cheap. The irritating black and yellow cab driver got shown his place, and the driver too enjoyed higher wages and a chance to be the boss himself. When the party is over, the hangover hurts.

Jispa is growing up now. Its good fun. She is close to us, we enjoy hugging her and we like her close. We like that thanks to our protection (read the alst post) she remained safe and happy – ok – not happy completely but atleast no real bad things happened. But then what are the long term consequences. I don’t know. Plus, I have only one kid. I can’t even learn and improve on this. What to do.

That’s why I like economics. At the base level its simple. And it helps understand life. I wish Jispa reads a lot of my books and a million more of hers as well. You never know which lesson will come handy.

love yourself (with a purpose)

I used to look down on foodies. I saw them as fat food junkies who were lazy and ate anything without really appreciating the food or worse still, appreciating food and nothing else. they lived to eat and their entertainment was only what you could eat. the archetype of the fat foodie was in my head and i had a healthy disdain for their kind. For me food was simple, put in your tummy as fast as possible and run forward. More cheese and fat was good as long as you could burn it. I for the hell of it, could never understand why people would like to spend their time and money to search for interesting places to eat and get ‘foodertained’.

My tryst with food I think started later in life, I think around five six years ago. From 2004 to 2008, my job involved some bit of traveling and I enjoyed the luxuries of flying the country and staying in five star hotels. I couldn't care less about going out and experiencing the city. For me it was a simple thing of getting to the hotel, ordering dine in and filling the bath tub and sinking in with the luxuries that are on offer. When the 2008 crash happened, traveling was the first to go out form the window along with five star stays. It was at that time that I realized that I had travelled but not really seen anything in any city. The big one I remember very clearly was when I was in Kolkata and my hotel was next door to the Kolkata zoo, I simply stayed put and never ventured next door. So when travel stopped I realized what I needed to do when it restarted. 

So when in 2010 I began to travel again for work, I decided to see the sights and see the cities in all their glory. Also a long work day meant that most of the time the free time would be in the evening and in the evening if you want to see the city then it has to be more gastronomical than anything else.

Thats how i slowly started sampling what the city has to offer in terms of food more than anything else. Amongst the food memories that i have these few stand out - the chai in the earthen pot in kolkata, the chills pakoda in vizag, the crazy food market at Manek chowk in Ahmedabad and the sarafa bazaar in Indore, the delhi parantha waali galli in chandini chowk and the soya chop sabzi in bengali market (delhi) which i can never forget, murugan idli in Chennai, the bhendi chips in ananda bhavan in Bengaluru, parathas somewhere in Chandigarh, and so on… Such is the rich experience I have had over the last few years and ofcourrse i have obviously missed many more lovely experiences. Plus these are the ones I have experienced as an official traveler. Those that I have had a leisure traveler are also too numerous.

The leisure ones I think started in earnest with our London trip. In London, we were out the whole day and the thing we subsisted on were cheap sandwiches which you get everywhere. you just pick up with a drink and chips and run along doing whatever you wanted to do. So thats what we ended up doing. On the first day I told Jispa - no matter how tasty the sandwich, we not have the same thing twice. So we experimented with every different sandwich and bread that we could and I found a willing ally in Jispa. We discussed the texture and the tastes and we enjoyed the variety that London had to offer us.

Now that I found food interesting and my palate began to develop, my mind followed and I began to look closely at what I could understand on food. Texture, taste, ingredients etc gave me insights into the kind of behavior and attitudes people exhibited and it began to shape a lot about what I saw and understood. The best was when Jasmine’s brother took us to the Hilton resort at Shillim (lonavala) which by itself was an extremely pricey hotel. There, we were there for a few days and I was bored with the standard fare so we experimented with a new restaurant in the hotel. We walked and started ordering only to realize that it was Fine Dine. To my amazement, i loved the food and loved sharing about the experiences with Jispa. He palate too had refined and she could also find discernible differences in the texture and the food and the course. I was hooked.

So this time on Jasmine’s birthday I booked ourselves at the Masala Library which I was told had a lovely tasting menu which was designed as a nine course plated meal. ( a lot of people in India don't even know what plated means). WE went and enjoy the mean and we were critical of it enough to know what we were served was clearly NOT clearly up to mark. It was the most expensive meal that would have eaten with my family and it was an experience in itself. All my life i have had times of feeling rich and feeling poor. I would feel rich only to create a (happy) instance where I went and over invested and ended up being poor till salaries rose.

These days I am feeling mixed. Rich due to a surplus spending potential but risk averse as i work in an insecure start up environment. So I thought why not take food as an experience and enjoy it with Jispa and the family. Jasmine too enjoys her food but she is an extremely tough nut to crack. She is not easily amused or vocal about it. Being from her Dand family she loves sweet and cold stuff more than anything else. Very rarely I have seen her get interested in food and drink and she rarely praises the food. It would take a lot out of her to get her to appreciate fine food. i must seen her praise some food only a few times in the time I have been with her. If she like an experience then it better be world class. Jispa and me on the other hand act like critics enjoying, praising critiquing the food we have anywhere, including possibly Burger King! We can get intellectual about fries with Jasmine wondering what the fuss would be about.

I think Jispa and me just love having these overtly intellectual conversations knowing that we are just having a ball of a time having  conversation.

For the record, the masala Library was a sore disappointment and not be had. Shit bland and overpriced menu and hardly beautifully decorated and plated. It was just a north Indian explosion of fat and taste. Rich wannabe Punju style with nothing in terms of texture and differentiated taste to show for it. Nothing at all. Just normal punk food served with some feeble attempt at style. Zilch!

moving on - there is something I also want to write about - Chakrasan. Go ahead and google it. Its a pose in Yoga. AN the humble chakrasan is the pose that stands for a lot of things in my life right now. I joined pilates class to get my back into shape and stretch my muscles. Later i realized it was a yogalates class. Basically a combo of yoga with pilates. It seeks to strengthen core muscles and promote a generally healthy body. I tried it at the start and it immediately helped strengthen my back which had started to hurt again in the middle. My core developed and so did my general strength and health. Twice a week in the morning I go for it. After two odd months I realized something… I hated the class but it was good for me. I hate the shit ass yoga music played and I hate the exercises and I hate the stretching I have to do. I hate the surya namaskars I have to do in different variations, but I know one thing - its good for me. I think I have always hated gymming out. I prefer playing some sport or a game instead. This is torture for me of the highest order. So many exercises that end up really hurting while I do it. Especially the plank! Its really really a tough thing to do. Then you have variations and other stuff, I hate. I hate the warm up routine and I hate the end routine. I keep looking at the watch as to what time will this end. And i hate the chakrasan. But I discovered a weird kind of will power while doing it. I realized that I was willing to do something that I completely hated and for me its is a source of strength and some proof that at 40 I still had control over what is right for me. Wow.

And chakrasan is the one thing that proves it for me. At the start I just couldn't do the chakrasan. then slowly slowly I could manage it. then one time, I was determined and I did it. the next time again I did it again a little more determined. this time, I sprained a little on the back where I think some of my muscles or nerves got entangled. So the last time, this week, I simply thought a little, cleared my mind and with my own time, I slowly lifted my body. I could do the chakrasan! wow. That was good. But still it doesn't escape the fact that I hate the class. And I am so proud of myself for hating the class and yet going in for it regularly in the morning! We all do things we love and we willingly make sacrifices for it but for doing something you hate and yet doing it as it is good for you in the long run, you know you have grown a little older, when that happens, isn't it?

Coming back to food, since I am lactose intolerant, I discovered the joy of having coffee with soy milk at the Starbucks. My favorite is the cappuccino soy, dry. Dry means that they put a lot more foam than the liquid from the soy milk. Nice strong and tasty with a ratchet of sugar. But when its hot, I have struggled for  finding relevance at the Starbucks. And I found a new one. A double shot expresso, served with Soy milk on the side. Along with Ice. Its funny because this is not on the menu. A double shot expresso with milk on the side is the cheapest on the menu and it not meant to be cold. Cold drinks are expensive at Starbucks. The cold coffee with soy milk is expensive as the cold coffee is made with cream, so you can choose not to add cream but you get charged for it. They aren't allowed to expresso on the rocks so I ask for all the ingredients separately and get it made according to my specifications at the bar. I love the strong drink I get and its the cheapest thing on the menu. haha! The joys of gaming your favorite place to be and getting your best thing done!

Also since Jispa got her cell phone every time we get into the car, we end up connecting her cell to the car bluetooth and listen to her collection of songs. I think the basic kind of music that the kids like hasn't change from my time. But its nice to get acquainted with music this way. Jispa, unlike me, loves her music and understands it. So who am I to stand in the way. So i happily listen to it and learn from it. New learning - Justin Bieber - the kid who shot to stardom and was tanked for crap music has made a come back. he is fans i am told are called ‘Beliebers’ and his latest album (Purpose) has been a hit and a come back to silence critics. Ofcourse not all critics are amused and of course there are detractors, but the point is that he changed his songs and the fans love it. Non Beilebers have turned and are listening. Jispa has it in the collection of songs she plays and I have heard it. I can safely say I am impressed. It is a bold new avatar for the guy!

here is the song and the music video

jispa and I both enjoyed it!

and now i saw this - a youtube response to the song. the Original is a guys perspective on a  break up and this one has both perspectives. The youtube stars now sing a song with both perspectives with the chick giving it a hard shot where it hurts and she is the one using expletives! Hah! that is one hell of a video. Yes for the record I saw it with jispa and I did not bleep the expletive!